Past crypto crashes took bitcoin down 77 to 85 percent

How is the depth of a crypto crash measured?

From the peak, to the lowest close after it, as a percentage of the peak. That number is a drawdown: the distance between the highest price a holding reached and the price it sits at later. The base is the peak, whatever you paid.

This matters because the same price can be a small fall or a large one depending on the peak behind it. A coin at $85,453 is 32 percent below a $126,000 peak and would be 24 percent above a $69,044 one. The headline "bitcoin is down" means nothing until the peak is named.

CoinDesk uses the same yardstick for its comparison, measuring each cycle's fall from its record high (source: CoinDesk, read 2026-10-07).

How deep did the past bitcoin falls go?

Four earlier cycles, each measured from the record high to the lowest point after it, as listed by the BIT Knowledge Hub:

• 2011 cycle: from $32 to $2, a fall of 94 percent, over roughly 5 months.
• 2013 to 2015 cycle: from $1,147 to $152, a fall of 87 percent, over roughly 400 days.
• 2017 to 2018 cycle: from $19,665 to $3,122, a fall of 84 percent, over roughly 350 days.
• 2021 to 2022 cycle: from $69,044 to $15,479, a fall of 77 percent, over roughly 380 days.

Source: BIT Knowledge Hub, Bear Market, dated 4 July 2026, read 2026-10-07.

CoinDesk's range for the same cycles is 77 to 85 percent. The figures differ a little because each source picks its own peak and trough dates, which is itself a reminder to name the source beside any drawdown number.

The shape was a steep first leg, then a long grind. BIT's account of the 2021 to 2022 fall describes several 30 to 40 percent rallies inside it, each of which looked like the bottom to the people holding through it.

What is different about the latest fall?

Two things, according to CoinDesk. The fall has been shallower, and its worst point came earlier.

One year after each earlier peak, by CoinDesk's own calculation, bitcoin was down 69.7 percent from the 2013 high. It was down 82.3 percent from the December 2017 high and 74.6 percent from the November 2021 high. One year after the 6 October 2025 high, it is down 32 percent.

At the low, just below $59,000 on 30 June 2026, it was down more than 53 percent. In earlier cycles the trough tended to arrive around the one-year mark or later. This time it arrived after about nine months, and the recovery since has been fast.

CoinDesk's sources give the reason as who held the asset. Earlier rallies were driven by retail traders using leverage, and they ended in fund failures and exchange collapses. The 2023 to 2025 rally was driven by money coming through regulated vehicles such as ETFs, and the downturn was a macro-led reversal of those flows.

Tim Sun of HashKey Group told CoinDesk the drawdown was shorter and the time spent at the bottom was reduced. Griffin Ardern of Primal Fund said ETF allocation money "rebalances to target weights," so it "buys weakness by construction."

CoinDesk also reports that bitcoin's annualized volatility sits near 40 percent, against long-term levels above 80 percent, as quoted by Sun.

What does a shallower fall tell a holder, and what not?

It tells you the mix of people holding bitcoin has changed, and it says nothing about whether the lowest point has passed.

The CoinDesk piece says as much itself. It warns that a shallow correction does not rule out sharper downside ahead, and Ardern argues the moment the shallow-fall story is loudest is usually when downside protection is cheapest. Both are the analysts' views, quoted for their reasoning and not offered here as a forecast in either direction.

What a holder can use is the arithmetic of recovery, because a fall and the climb back are not the same percentage. Take a ₹5 lakh position and apply each depth:

• A 32 percent fall leaves ₹5,00,000 × 0.68 = ₹3,40,000. Getting back to ₹5,00,000 needs a rise of 5,00,000 ÷ 3,40,000 − 1 = 47 percent.
• A 53 percent fall leaves ₹5,00,000 × 0.47 = ₹2,35,000. The climb back is 5,00,000 ÷ 2,35,000 − 1 = 113 percent.
• A 77 percent fall leaves ₹5,00,000 × 0.23 = ₹1,15,000. The climb back is 5,00,000 ÷ 1,15,000 − 1 = 335 percent.
• An 85 percent fall leaves ₹5,00,000 × 0.15 = ₹75,000. The climb back is 5,00,000 ÷ 75,000 − 1 = 567 percent.

These figures are arithmetic on a round amount, and no holding did exactly this. The deeper the fall, the steeper the climb back. A shallower fall is easier on a holder for that reason alone.

How does a rules-based basket go through a fall like this?

It follows a schedule. A basket on a published methodology is rebalanced on a set date, back to the weights its rules set, whatever the price did in between.

A Qatobit Crypto Index is that kind of basket. QSI Core, QSI Growth and QSI VRION hold crypto and are rebalanced monthly on a documented methodology. The fee on a rebalance is 0.35 percent per basket transaction, there is no annual management fee, and nothing is charged for leaving at any holding period. The weights and the backtested figures sit on the site's index pages, which the site updates as the backtest runs.

The indices are designed so that a basket mixes crypto with assets that answer to their own drivers, because most of crypto moves with Bitcoin. That is design intent, stated as construction, and it promises nothing about any particular fall. QSI VRION is the deliberate exception: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana with no hedge layer, for a holder who has chosen full conviction over a multi-year horizon.

Around each rebalance, the investor can see what was sold and what was bought. A rule that runs monthly makes no decision in the worst week of a fall, which is what a holder wants when the screen is red. The same ETF logic CoinDesk quotes, buying weakness back to target weights, is how a scheduled rebalance behaves. Whether it helps in any single fall depends on the fall.

Backtested figures are history, not a forecast, and live index results will differ from them.

What should a holder take from a 32 percent fall?

Decide the depth you can hold before the screen decides for you. A drawdown figure is only useful as a size. If a 53 percent fall on this position would force you to sell, the position is larger than your horizon allows, whatever the latest fall looked like.

Two practical checks follow from the arithmetic. First, size each crypto position as a share of the whole portfolio. Then a fall of 77 to 85 percent, as in earlier cycles, is a loss the portfolio absorbs. Three percent of a ₹1 crore portfolio is ₹3,00,000, and an 85 percent fall on it is ₹2,55,000, which is 2.55 percent of the portfolio. Second, read any drawdown headline for its peak and its source before reading the percentage.

For the sizing method, read what a drawdown is and how a position is sized to survive one. For how a monthly rule moves a basket back to its weights, see portfolio rebalancing when one holding falls 10 percent.

Frequently asked questions

How much did bitcoin fall in past crypto crashes?

Between 77 and 94 percent from the peak, depending on the cycle. BIT's table lists 94 percent in 2011, 87 percent in 2013 to 2015, 84 percent in 2017 to 2018 and 77 percent in 2021 to 2022. CoinDesk's range for the more recent bear markets is 77 to 85 percent.

How far is bitcoin below its record high?

32 percent below the $126,000 record as of 6 October 2026, at $85,453, according to CoinDesk. At its lowest, just below $59,000 on 30 June 2026, it was more than 53 percent below it.

Why was this fall shallower than earlier ones?

CoinDesk's account is that earlier rallies were driven by retail traders using leverage, and ended in forced selling. The 2023 to 2025 rally was driven by regulated vehicles such as ETFs, and the fall was a macro-led reversal of those flows. Leverage was largely cleared out near the top.

Does a shallow fall mean the bottom is in?

No. The same CoinDesk piece says a shallow correction does not rule out sharper downside ahead. A drawdown figure describes how far a price has fallen from a peak, and says nothing about where it goes next.

Why does a 50 percent fall need a 100 percent gain to recover?

Because the gain is measured on a smaller base. ₹5,00,000 falling 50 percent is ₹2,50,000, and ₹2,50,000 has to double to return to ₹5,00,000. The deeper the fall, the larger the percentage climb back.

Crypto investments are subject to market risk. Not financial advice.